| Today we're going to begin with a short quiz. |
| No, no, you don't need pencil and paper, just listen. |
| It's only one question. |
| Ready? OK. |
| What do blogs, Pokemon, tattoos, Cabbage Patch Kids, pet rocks, and hula hoops have in common? |
| Anybody? |
| They're all stupid. |
| I know, Professor Morgan. They're all fads. |
| Correct. |
| Now here's another question: |
| How did you know that? |
| In other words, what are the characteristics of a fad, |
| and what's the difference between a fad and a trend? |
| These are the questions we're going to consider together this afternoon. |
| Well, the main difference, I think, between a fad and a trend concerns time. |
| A fad is something that seems to appear suddenly. |
| It quickly becomes enormously popular, |
| then disappears just as suddenly as it came. |
| A trend also appears rather suddenly, |
| and it also becomes very popular, |
| but it doesn't disappear. |
| A trend can have a long-term influence on its particular market. |
| Fads and trends often resemble each other at first glance, |
| but a fad usually has a definite beginning and end. |
| Um, Pokemon might be a fad, |
| but the idea of fancy playing cards for children might be a trend, for example. |
| Another difference is that fads usually stay within one industry. |
| Trends can cross over into many industries. |
| The hula hoop, for instance, has been called the greatest fad of all time. |
| 25 million... |
| In the late 1950s, 25 million hula hoops were sold in just four months. |
| But a year later, sales had virtually stopped. |
| The hula hoop was a toy. |
| It was fun to play with, but that's about all. |
| Now consider cell phones. |
| They were designed to be portable telephones, |
| but they crossed over into the worlds of fashion, |
| wireless communication, and now even photography. |
| People buy cell phones that match the latest clothes fashions. |
| They use cell phones for wireless Internet access. |
| They take photos with them. |
| Cell phones have become a trend. |
| Here's the third difference between fads and trends: |
| how well industries accept them. |
| Fads are often promoted by smaller companies. |
| They need the quick money that fads provide. |
| Large companies don't accept fads right away. |
| They can't afford to be wrong. |
| If a company is known as a trend-setter, |
| and it promotes a fad, its reputation will be damaged. |
| Large companies buy products in huge numbers. |
| They don't want unsold products sitting on their shelves. |
| So they wait to see if a fad becomes a trend. |
| Then they will accept it in their stores. |
| Now... yes? |
| How long does a fad have to last before it becomes a trend? |
| I mean, there are all these energy drinks now. |
| There used to be only a couple, but now there's like, a hundred. |
| Are they still a fad? |
| Exercise is a trend, so wouldn't energy drinks be part of the exercise trend? |
| That's an excellent question! |
| When exactly does a fad become a trend? |
| You know, there are some people who are paid a lot of money to answer that question. |
| If they get it right, companies become rich and famous. |
| If they get it wrong, companies go bankrupt and careers get ruined. |
| The short answer is: nobody knows. |
| Distinguishing between fads and trends is an art, not a science. |
| If it were easy, there would be a lot more rich people in the world. |
| Yes, in the back. |
| Yeah, um... can't people get rich from fads, too? |
| You said they sold 25 million hula hoops in four months. |
| Someone must have made big money off that? |
| Yes, they did. |
| Toy companies made, uh, $45 million off of hula hoops by the time the fad ended. |
| And maybe some of you have heard of pet rocks, in the 1970s? |
| A man bought a rock for a penny, |
| put it in a gift box and marketed it as a pet. |
| He became an instant millionaire. |
| But the problem... the trouble with fads is, |
| no one can predict them. |
| This man had no idea that so many people would buy rocks as pets. |
| He started it as kind of a joke. |
| The Pokemon creators had no clue their cards would become instantly popular all over the world. |
| That's the thing. |
| Fads are mysterious to both their creators and to the public. |